In "Permutation city", a novel by Greg Egan, the character Peer, having achieved immortality within a virtual reality over which he has total control, finds himself terribly bored. So he engineers himself to have new passions. One moment he is pushing the boundaries of higher mathematics; the next he is writing operas. "He'd even been interested in the Elysians , once. No longer. He preferred to think about table legs." Peer's fickleness relates to a deeper point. When technology has solved humanity's deepest problems, what is left to do?
在格雷格·伊根的小说《置换之城》中，人物皮尔在他完全控制的虚拟日常达成了永生， 却发现自己很无聊。 因此，他开始为自己设计新的激情。 一会儿，他在探索高等数学的边界;一会儿，他又在创作歌剧。 “皮尔曾一度对极乐世界有兴趣。 但目前已不有兴趣了。 他更喜欢考虑一些琐其他的，譬如桌腿。”皮尔的善变反映一个更深层次的问题： 当技术解决了人类最深层的难点后，大家还能做些什么呢?
That is one question considered in a new publication by Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the university of Oxford, whose last book argued that humanity faced a one-in-six chance of being wiped out in the next 100 years, perhaps owing to the development of dangerous forms of artificial intelligence . In Mr Bostrom's latest book, "Deep UTOPia", he considers a rather different outcome. What happens if 人工智能 goes extraordinarily well? Under one scenario Mr Bostrom contemplates, the technology progresses to the point at which it can do all economically valuable work at near-zero cosplayt. Under a yet more radical scenario, even tasks that you might think would be reserved for humans, such as parenting, can be done better by 人工智能. This may sound more dysTOPian than uTOPian, but Mr Bostrom argues otherwise.
这是牛津大学哲学家尼克·博斯特罗姆在他的新书中探讨的一个问题， 他上一本书曾提出：因为危险类AI的进步，将来100年内，人类面临1/6的灭绝风险。 在博斯特罗姆的新书《深度乌托邦》中，他考虑了一个完全不同的结果。 假如人工智能的进步超乎想象地顺利，将会发生什么? 在博斯特罗姆先生设想的一种状况下， 人工智能技术进步到可以近乎零投资完成所有具备经济价值工作的程度。 另一个更激进的场景是，即便是那些看上去只能由人类完成的任务，譬如婴幼儿教育，也可以由人工智能更出色地完成。 这听起来可能更像是反乌托邦，而不是乌托邦，但博斯特罗姆先生的看法并不是这样。
Start with the first scenario, which Mr Bostrom labels a "post-scarcity" uTOPia. In such a world, the need for work would be reduced. Almost a century ago John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay entitled "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren", which predicted that 100 years into the future his wealthy descendants would need to work for only 15 hours a week. This has not quite come to pass, but working time has fallen greatly. In the rich world average weekly working hours have dropped from more than 60 in the late 19th century to fewer than 40 today. The typical American spends a third of their waking hours on leisure activities and sports. In the future, they may wish to spend their time on things beyond humanity's current conception. As Mr Bostrom writes, when aided by powerful tech, "the space of possible-for-us experiences extends far beyond those that are accessible to us with our present unoptimised brains."
第一来看博斯特罗姆称为“后稀缺”乌托邦的第一个场景。 在这种世界里，大家对工作的需要将会降低。 大约100年前，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯写了一篇题为《大家孙辈的经济可能性》的文章， 预测100年后，他富有些后代每周仅需工作15小时。 虽然这个预测并未完全成真，但工作时间确实已经显著降低。 在发达国家，平均每周工作时间从19世纪末的60多个小时降低至今的40个小时以下。 典型的美国人会将1/3的清醒时间花在休闲活动和体育运动上。 在将来，他们可能期望将时间花在人类现在没办法想象的事情上。 正如博斯特罗姆所写，在强大的科技帮助下， “大家可能获得的体验空间远远超出了大家现在尚未优化的大脑所能触及的范围。”
Yet Mr Bostrom's label of a "post-scarcity" uTOPia might be slightly misleading: the economic explosion caused by superintelligence would still be limited by physical resources, most notably land. Although space exploration may hugely increase the building space available, it will not make it infinite. There are also intermediate worlds where humans develop powerful new forms of intelligence, but do not become space-faring. In such worlds, wealth may be fantastic, but lots of it could be absorbed by housing—much as is the case in rich countries today.
不过，博斯特罗姆将这种现象称为“后稀缺”乌托邦可能有的误导性： 尽管超级智能或许会带来经济爆炸式增长，但这种增长仍然会遭到物理资源的限制，特别是土地。 尽管太空探索或许会很大地扩大可供建设的空间，但这并不意味着空间是无限的。 还有一些中间世界，人类进步出了强大的新智能形式，但并未达成太空旅游。 在这种世界中，财富可能很可观，但其中非常大一部分财富或许会被用于住房——正如当今发达国家的状况一样。
重点词语
virtual reality 虚拟现实，拟境，虚拟时空
terribly bored 很无聊 ; 闷得发慌
One moment 等一下 ; 稍等一下
higher mathematics 高等数学 ; 高数 ; 教学大纲
interested in 有兴趣 ; 对…关注 ; 关心 ; 尽力
No longer 不再
think about 考虑，计划 ; 考虑到 ; 关心 ; 设想，想像 ; 替……着想
what is 是什么 ; 什么是 ; 什麽
That is 即 ; 用于纠正之前说过的内容
new publication 新出版物 ; 打造发行集